# There Is No Modern Playbook for This. US Core Inflation at 3.3%, Re-Accelerating. Producer Prices at 6.4%. Consumer Delinquencies Past 2007.

Published: 2026-06-12

US core PCE - the gauge the Fed targets at 2% - is at 3.3% and re-accelerating. Outside Covid, last at this level in April 1992. 25-year pre-Covid average: 1.7%. It has now spent 62 straight months above target. And the pipeline says more is coming: PPI final demand at 6.4% - hottest in the modern series outside Covid - with core PPI at 4.9%; PPI is running 2.2 points ahead of CPI, putting the bigger share of the bill on producers (margin compression) but with consumer pass-through inevitable. The consumer is already stretched: gasoline at $4.65 (only June/July 2022 ever higher), and 3.4% of consumer debt is in the 90+ DPD bucket - past the 3.1% mark of late 2007 and more than double the end-2022 low, rising in 12 of the last 13 quarters. Against all of this the S&P set a record at 7,610 on June 2 with Shiller CAPE 2nd-highest in 145 years and Michigan sentiment lowest in 73 years - a handful of AI names doing most of the lifting. The last two times the market was priced like this while the economy cracked underneath - 2000 and 2007 - the index halved. 6-slide deck with full series codes, method, and the dot-com (-49%) / GFC (-57%) drawdown references.

## Where to find the full content

- HTML page (full text, image deck, links): https://tigzig.com/post/us-inflation-shock-no-modern-playbook-jun2026
- Markdown of the HTML page: send GET https://tigzig.com/post/us-inflation-shock-no-modern-playbook-jun2026 with header `Accept: text/markdown`
- PDF deck (full analysis, charts, sources): https://tigzig.com/files/US_INFLATION_SHOCK_JUN2026.pdf

## Tags
portfolio-quants

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Note: this is a short text-only post (release announcement / brief commentary). The full body lives at the HTML page URL above - there is no deck source or PDF transcript for this one. The image referenced in the body (if any) is a generic illustration, not analytical content.