# Red Flag: US Credit Unions. A $1.73T System at GFC-Era Losses. Card Charge-Offs 10 Straight Quarters Past the Crisis Peak.

Published: 2026-06-10

Red flag on US credit unions - a $1.73 trillion lending system running GFC-level losses in consumer, with no recession on the board. Card charge-offs hit 5.30% in Q1 2026, above the 2008-09 crisis peak (4.68%) for 10 consecutive quarters - a plateau, not a spike. Real estate and commercial are calm (59% of loans, 4% of losses). Consumer is 41% of loans and 95% of losses, with auto NCO at a fresh series record (0.97%) and cards at 33% of all CU loan losses. Measured vs each sector's own GFC peak: credit unions are at 113% on cards (past), banks just 38% - this is not system-wide banking stress, it is concentrated in credit unions. The silver lining: consumer balances are $19B below their end-2023 peak and falling, the shape of a deliberate tightening - but vintages already booked will run their loss curves. The Share Insurance Fund equity ratio is at 1.30% (below the 1.33% normal operating level); a wave could force a premium assessment on every surviving credit union (precedent: 2009-10 corporate CU crisis). The NCUA is run by a single board member - the other two were removed in April 2025, dispute now at the Supreme Court. Banks have Jamie Dimon. Credit unions have nobody. 13-slide carousel deck with full method, source notes and the failure-channel transmission path. Companion to the prior 'Auto Past the GFC Peak. Cards Almost There' post.

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## Tags
portfolio-quants

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